Changeset 2816

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10/30/09 20:19:47 (4 weeks ago)
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jaein
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  • HydroWatch/Tim/doc/ipsn10/sec_energy.tex

    r2764 r2816  
    11%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 
    22\section{Energy Prediction}~\label{sec:energypredict} 
    3 As described in Section~\ref{sec:energyrelation}, the optimization process relies on an estimate of harvested energy at various intervals ahead in time in order to make use of opportunities of high amounts of energy in order to maximize utility. In order to form this prediction $\hat{E_h(n,k+i)}$ we make use of a number different information inputs including an astronomic model, solar radiation measurements 
    4 and the measurement and forecast of weather condition. The prediction process is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:energy_prediction_process}. 
     3As described in Section~\ref{sec:energyrelation}, the optimization process relies on an estimate of harvested energy at various intervals ahead in time in order to make use of opportunities of high amounts of energy in order to maximize utility. In order to form this prediction $\hat{E_h}(n,k+i)}$, we make use of a number of different information inputs including an astronomic model, solar radiation measurements 
     4and the measurement and forecast of weather conditions. The prediction process is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:energy_prediction_process}. 
    55 
    66\begin{figure}[ht] 
     
    2121\delta = E_h / E_a 
    2222\end{equation}  
    23 With the atmospheric model model, the effective sunlight that shines on  
     23With the atmospheric model, the effective sunlight that shines on  
    2424the solar panel is proportional to $\cos\Theta$ when the angle of sunlight  
    2525from the normal to the solar panel is $\Theta$, The angle $\Theta$ depends  
     
    5050 
    5151Many weather stations provide the current measurement and a forecast 
    52 of the cloud cover and this can be used to predict the weather effect 
    53 on the solar radiation. The prediction of the weather effect is done 
    54 in two steps. First, we maintain the relation between the cloud cover 
     52of cloud cover and this can be used to predict the weather effect 
     53on solar radiation. The prediction of the weather effect is done 
     54in two steps. First, we maintain the relationship between the cloud cover 
    5555$C$ and the solar radiation variation $\delta$. The cloud cover is 
    5656usually given as a discrete value between 1 and 10, depending on how 
    57 much the sky is covered with the cloud (Figure~\ref{fig:weather}). 
     57much of the sky is covered with clouds (Figure~\ref{fig:weather}). 
    5858This gives a CDF of the solar radiation variation for each value of  
    5959the discrete value $i$. Figure~\ref{fig:prediction1} shows the  
    60 distribution of the solar energy for each weather forecast category, 
     60distribution of solar energy for each weather forecast category, 
    6161and Figure~\ref{fig:cdf2_example} shows CDFs for weather category  
    62622 and 9: $\{(C_2,\delta)\}$ and $\{(C_9,\delta)\}$.